The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) celebrated its centennial year on a relatively muted note (for Detroit) as industry delegates pondered the future of the North American automotive manufacturers. The Metal Powder Industries Federation (MPIF) has traditionally participated in the Congress programme by helping to organise technical sessions highlighting PM automotive applications and hosting a reception and luncheon meeting at the Detroit Marriott Hotel in the Renaissance Center, which also houses General Motors World headquarters.

MPIF Executive Director/CEO Jim Trombino welcomed about 250 PM and auto industry attendees at the 20th Annual Automotive Suppliers Luncheon Program and introduced MPIF President David Schaefer (Cloyes Gear & Products, Inc.). In his review of the PM industry, Mr Schaefer reported that 2004 had been a "break-out year" for the North American as well as the European and Japanese PM industries.

North American iron and steel powder shipments, a bell-weather for the industry, rose 7 per cent to a record 473,800 short tons (429,800 tonnes). Ferrous powder shipments in Europe set a new record with a 9 per cent rise and there was also a 9 per cent increase in Japan. Consumption of PM parts per vehicle in North America rose to a new high of 43 pounds (19.5 kg.) in 2004 despite the ongoing loss of market share among the "Big Three" auto producers. Mr Schaefer took this as a sign the PM industry was doing a better job of marketing to the "Little Three", although he knew there was room for improvement in this respect.

Following the record-breaking 2004, dark clouds were now forming over the PM industry as with other manufacturing industries. Base metal powder surcharges and escalating alloy prices caused a threat to the PM industry's growth, simply from the reluctance of most customers to absorb the full impact of material cost increases.

It was a case of simple economics, he said: no profits equalled no new investments, which equalled no growth. The capital investment needed for new programmes continued to increase and without an adequate return they wouldn't go forward. He went on to add that this year it would be a challenge just to match the production levels of 2004.

After the surge in oil prices over the past two years, and with gasoline prices at $2 per US gallon in most parts of the US, there were now signs of consumer resistance in auto sales, particularly for the large and profitable sports utility vehicles (SUVs). When the rising health care costs for the auto industry were factored into the equation with lower demand, the picture for the commercial side of the PM industry was not a rosy one.

On the technology side, things looked more hopeful. PM's customers in the auto industry were continuing to push the envelope on many fronts to achieve lower fuel consumption. Mr Schaefer cited some of the technology being offered in new generations of engines: cylinder-deactivation, variable cylinder management, VVT-equipped engines, fuel stratification, and hybrids. On hybrids, he noted that the "experts" all had opinions on their future (in North America), some saying there would be sales of one million hybrids/year by 2010.

Mr Schaefer reported that PM continued to make significant gains with transmission carrier frames. Ramp-ups were also going ahead with GM's global V-6 3.6 litre engine that contains close to seven pounds (3.2 kg) of PM VVT components alone. DaimlerChrysler is switching to PM main bearing caps, and the overall trend towards all-wheel-drive was a positive industry development that could lead to 8 - 10 pounds (3.6 - 4.5 kg) of additional PM parts. He went on to note that efforts by the industry to produce PM components with densities exceeding 7.5 g/cm3 economically were continuing from the materials, equipment and processing sides-urged on by the exciting possibilities and new potential that this could bring.

Finally, he referred to the Global Powder Metallurgy Property Database that had been two years in the making and was unveiled last October at the PM World Congress in Vienna, and was being officially launched in North America during the SAE Congress. He reported that so far, more than 700 people from 40 countries had registered to use the Database and that 30 per cent of these had been identified as PM end-users. Early feedback from end-users indicated that it was a "terrific aid", and placed the PM industry in the same league as other metal industries - in the designer's eye. He said it represented a major step in taking the PM industry from a "conversion" industry to an "applications" industry. The luncheon programme concluded with a step-by-step video presentation introducing the database.